Foreign Perspectives

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The whole idea behind the common market, or European Union as we call it these days, was that borders between the countries participating would gradually cease to exist and, for the most part, that has been gradually happening over the last 20 or 30 years. How come then there’s almost always a queue at the border crossing between Spain and France then?

I used to think that it was just a case of “jobs for the boys” until I saw a number of cars and caravans being pretty much taken apart by the customs guys. Presumably they’re enforcing some import control then? Perhaps, but then anything that you can legally buy in Spain can be legally taken to France.

Whatever they’re doing it certainly causes major problems in the Summer when the queues of cars can reach right back to the toll booth (abour 6 kilometres!) and the hill leading up to the customs post is littered with cars that have overheated and had to pull in off the road.

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In years gone by the French were one of the most backward nations in the world with their use of the Internet. They stuck resolutely to their France-only Minitel system and, for the most part, refused to have anything to do with the American-dominated Internet.

That situation is changing very quickly. For example, whilst we had our first ever online reservation from a French person just two Summers ago, nowadays they are commonplace. So, it’s not surprising that the election campaign has gone online in an equally big way. Blogs are coming to be an expected part of that with the Royal campaign blog started early on and campaigning even taking place on SecondLife. Not so long ago, I’d have said that the SecondLife campaign office was totally crazy but apparently the swing against the recent EU referendum was started with the blog from an obscure teacher in Marseille so it would appear possible to swing public opinion in the real world from our vantage point in the virtual one, even in France.

But what about the real politics? Royal prefers intuition to ideology and is said to be good on the “small things” that arise in truly local politics and weak on the bigger picture. She is deliberately vague and promises to consult the people which are, in some ways, excellent approaches. The problem is that when one consults the people one finds out what the people want, not necessarily what they need.

Where she is more specific there are clear contradictions in her policies. In her economic policy objectives she wants to raise the minimum wage substantially, to abolish the CNE labour law (which makes hiring & firing easier for small companies) and to promote even more mass-unionisation (in an already highly unionised country), all clear job destroyers. Yet, on the other hand, she also hopes to create 500,000 youth jobs, generate training opportunities for longer term unemployed youths and even review the 35 hour week. Those two groups of objectives seem to be in clear opposition. Throughout her policies there is the underlying strand of more state intervention with talk of state aid (barely mentioned elsewhere in the world), increased tax on dividends (thus discouraging investment), state regulation of banking fees (no doubt to support the indigenous banks) and renationalisation of EDF/GDF.

What about Sarkozy though? Well, to our eyes he appears more of a “normal” western European politician with his hopes to encourage the job creators to return home to France, to cut taxes and generally free up the state burden on the population. However, he’s unlikely to do much about the farming subsidies or go far to address France’s head in the sand approach to globalisation.

The problem that both face on behalf of the country is that, whilst they might complain about their taxes, the French like their cozy system of benefits and jobs for life. After all, why would anyone want to bother working a 40 hour week when they could work a 35 hour week for the same salary? For that matter, if Royal’s proposal to take unemployment benefit to 90% of that received from one’s previous job, why would anyone want to work at all? This approach is quite typically French in totally ignoring what the rest of the world is getting up to. That, of course, is the main problem with French politics. For example, when an attempt was made to make it easier to hire & fire young people in early 2006, the predictable result was riots in the streets and, equally predictably, a climbdown by the government. Whilst the people needed jobs, what they wanted were jobs for life.

I suspect that this time around the French people will get what they want which is pretty much what Royal has on offer. However, what they need is Sarkozy, if he’s strong enough to push through his policies in spite of certain opposition to a number of them.

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Boris over at France This Way writing about the upcoming French elections reminds me that I’m registered to vote here and perhaps I should find out some more about the people who I might be asked to vote for.

Although registered to vote here, I can only vote in the local and European elections, not the national ones that Boris talks about. Still, it’s interesting to read his take on the policies being proposed by the leading candidates.

Sarkozy definitely sounds like the candidate that France needs. Unfortunately, going by past performance he would more than likely back down from his policies in the face of certain public demonstrations against reductions in benefits. Does that mean that France needs Royal with her policies of increasing benefits and just borrowing more and more to pay for it? Boris suggests that getting him elected and driving France to the abyss would get someone strong enough to pull France out of the hole next time around but I don’t think it would: France would just go sailing over the abyss with spiralling unemployment as it became too expensive to employ people and too difficult to entice people to work anyway when the benefits were so high.

I for one would be quite happy to remain unemployed until retirement age if I was getting paid 90% of what I previously earned. After all, that would free me up from the expenses of going to work each day and would almost certainly mean that I’d get more net “pay” than I was before. Why would anyone be daft enough to look for work under those circumstances?

In fact, the only fly in the ointment in this scenario is that France quite clearly doesn’t have enough money to pay for the pensions that it’s contracted to pay for. At present, there doesn’t appear to be any option other than “pay as you go” schemes in France. These are wonderful inventions which mean that as soon as the scheme is introduced all those presently retired get a full pension which is paid for by those currently working. Unfortunately, since they aren’t funded the whole system depends on having a reasonable number of people working for each person retired.

When old age pensions were first introduced in the UK way back in 1908 for over 70s, the average life expectancy was 50 ie most people died before they received their pension. Now though, with life expectancy over 70, most people do receive their pension. So whilst in 1908 it was no problem paying the pensions in that most people didn’t live long enough to get them, now we find taxes increasing more and more to cover pension payments and yet still there is no “money in the pot” to pay for them.

So what will happen in France? I think that regardless of who is elected, social contributions and benefits will remain high because no French polician is prepared to stand up against the certain protests against reducing benefits. So, the country will have to borrow more. That’s not a sustainable strategy and sooner or later the lenders will call a halt. When they do, it will more than likely be catastrophic for France with widespread and substantial cuts in benefits and taxes called for accompanied by privatisation of just about everything I suspect.

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