Foreign Perspectives

The events surrounding the slow death of the Northern Rock mortgage bank get more and more surrealistic by the day.

Back in July last year it was actually the leading mortgage lender in the UK with 19% of the entire market for new mortgages sold in the first half of the year. Bearing in mind that it’s basically a fairly small building society this should have been the first sign that trouble was ahead as it meant that to source the funds for those mortgages it had to move well outside it’s traditional deposit base and borrow on world markets to find the money.

Just two months after announcing these fantastic results we find that the bank needed to go to the Bank of England for emergency support which, of course, it was granted. The next day the troubles began in earnest for the bank as everyone tried to reassure the customers that everything was fine. Of course, it was far from being fine as the large queues of depositors asking for their money bank well knew on hearing this announcement. On September 17th, just three days later the government moved in to guarantee the deposits held by the bank, subsequently extended on October 9th to include all deposits made regardless of the date.

Moving on to today we find that the government has provided some £25 billion (around £1000 from every family in the country) to support the bank and here’s where the magical world of finance really kicks in.

Although the bank seems to have enough security to repay all of it’s debts, to repay everyone would entail calling in the mortgages on an awful lot of people which obviously wouldn’t go down too well and might not even be possible legally for those that have been keeping up their repayments. Of course this is the same situation for all banks: if everyone wanted their money back at the same time there just wouldn’t be enough on hand. Therefore, in a sense, it makes sense for the government to provide backing to avoid repossessions on a wide scale and to provide confidence in the banking system in general.

However, the government clearly need the money back at some point unless they want to nationalise the bank.

The snag is that there is really no way for them to actually get the money back. So, what they’re doing instead is proposing selling bonds to the value of that £25 billion. The problem with that is that nobody wants to buy bonds from a bankrupt bank and therefore the government will have to provide the security for the bonds too which means that they won’t be clear of that £25 billion for some years, if ever (some similar bonds issued for the first world war still haven’t been repaid!).

And, of course, this is just one bank. Granted, a bank that over-extended itself but who’s to say that there aren’t a few other banks around in a similar situation or who could find themselves in such a situation if the current squeeze on credit worldwide continues?