Foreign Perspectives

Archive for the ‘Banking’ Category

If you’re considering investing outside your own country whether it be in shares or in property you need to consider the interest rate in that country relative to your own and the echange rate with your own currency.

The two tend to be linked and can rarely be considered totally in isolation. If you consider relatively stable currencies then a higher interest rate will tend to make a currency more valuable and conversely a lower interest rate will tend to make it less so. I say “tend to” because it’s far from a direct link as exchange rates are notoriously fickle: if markets take a view that a currency is overvalued then it’ll go down regardless of how high the interest rates are raised in that country.

However, unless you’re into short term trading it’s largely trends in exchange and interest rates that are important rather than the value that either may have at a given time. In fact, the neither the interest rate nor the exchange rate at a given point really matters a great deal but what you do need to do is to keep an eye on the exchange rate which is, usually, the most important variable when you’re investing outside your own country.

This also affects how you should keep score. Say you’re in the UK and you’re investing in America. In that case you need to measure the performance of your portfolio in dollars, not pounds. To rate the performance in pounds is just going to create a false performance statistic as it’ll be affected by the ups and downs of sterling vs the dollar and those can be quite substantial: in the last 20 years the pound has ranged from around $1 to the pound to over $2 to the pound. Obviously you’ll still measure your bottom line performance in sterling in this case but the performance of the portfolio itself is best charted in dollars.

If you’re selling property outside your home country it’s easy to fall into the trap of pricing it in the local currency and then forgetting about it.

That usually works fine if property sales in the foreign country move at a fairly brisk pace but often they move at a much more sedate pace than you are accustomed to. Whilst exchange rates between the major currencies rarely move quickly they do move and over a period of many months the price translated back into your home currency can change quite substantially.

For example, take a property that you wanted to sell for £60,000 at the start of 2007 and you therefore priced it at EUR 90,000 (£60,641). By the start of 2008 you could sell that property for EUR 85,000 and pick up £62,553. You might think that a year is a long time to have a property on sale but in many European markets property sales proceed at a very sedate pace and it’s not unusual to have a house for sale for quite an extended period before you find a buyer.

If you are counting in your home currency it can often pay to check whether or not you can lower the local price but still collect the same amount of money as obviously it can speed up the sale of the property.

The events surrounding the slow death of the Northern Rock mortgage bank get more and more surrealistic by the day.

Back in July last year it was actually the leading mortgage lender in the UK with 19% of the entire market for new mortgages sold in the first half of the year. Bearing in mind that it’s basically a fairly small building society this should have been the first sign that trouble was ahead as it meant that to source the funds for those mortgages it had to move well outside it’s traditional deposit base and borrow on world markets to find the money.

Just two months after announcing these fantastic results we find that the bank needed to go to the Bank of England for emergency support which, of course, it was granted. The next day the troubles began in earnest for the bank as everyone tried to reassure the customers that everything was fine. Of course, it was far from being fine as the large queues of depositors asking for their money bank well knew on hearing this announcement. On September 17th, just three days later the government moved in to guarantee the deposits held by the bank, subsequently extended on October 9th to include all deposits made regardless of the date.

Moving on to today we find that the government has provided some £25 billion (around £1000 from every family in the country) to support the bank and here’s where the magical world of finance really kicks in.

Although the bank seems to have enough security to repay all of it’s debts, to repay everyone would entail calling in the mortgages on an awful lot of people which obviously wouldn’t go down too well and might not even be possible legally for those that have been keeping up their repayments. Of course this is the same situation for all banks: if everyone wanted their money back at the same time there just wouldn’t be enough on hand. Therefore, in a sense, it makes sense for the government to provide backing to avoid repossessions on a wide scale and to provide confidence in the banking system in general.

However, the government clearly need the money back at some point unless they want to nationalise the bank.

The snag is that there is really no way for them to actually get the money back. So, what they’re doing instead is proposing selling bonds to the value of that £25 billion. The problem with that is that nobody wants to buy bonds from a bankrupt bank and therefore the government will have to provide the security for the bonds too which means that they won’t be clear of that £25 billion for some years, if ever (some similar bonds issued for the first world war still haven’t been repaid!).

And, of course, this is just one bank. Granted, a bank that over-extended itself but who’s to say that there aren’t a few other banks around in a similar situation or who could find themselves in such a situation if the current squeeze on credit worldwide continues?

By far the most popular post on our Whole Earth Guide is the one detailing how to go about opening a bank account in America.

The reason is simple really: if you run an online business then sooner or later you generally find yourself in need of an American bank account. Unfortunately, the increased security measures in place post 9/11 mean that it’s not quite so easy to open one these days unless, of course, you’re living in America and therefore a considerable number of websites have grown up with the specific aim of selling you the required information.

Our site doesn’t charge for that information and therefore is increasingly popular as it provides exactly the same information that other sites charge anything from $5 to $250 to provide.

However, we’re sorely tempted to start charging for it too given some of the emails we’ve received demanding additional information and wanting to know why it isn’t on the site yet. What we’ll likely do is to charge for the hand-holding level of information or at least offer it for sale as the information on the above page is quite sufficient to allow anyone to open an account in America.

We’ve been looking around the prices of places locally and there’s quite a divergence between what some places are actually worth and what they might sell for at the moment.

For example, there’s a major hotel/restaurant complex near us that’s listed for almost EUR 2.5 million. It’s easily worth that as it’s a recently modernised building with over 30 rooms, large swimming pool, gardens, sports facilities, has a second building under construction to add another 30 rooms and planning permission for a third building for the complex plus extensive grounds.

Unfortunately, that complex is totally out of character with the region. There’s nothing comparable to it locally and for good reason: there just isn’t the market for it here.

So, whilst it might well be worth 2.5 million (and probably more), chances are that it’ll sell for around 1.5 million or so. That’s if it sells at all, of course, as it’s nothing like what people would expect in this area which means that nobody is looking to buy such a facility here.