Archive for the ‘Commentary’ Category

Google pagerank and site value


My blog is worth $11,855.34.
How much is your blog worth?

As we write this we are languishing at PR2 which is “below average” but then we’ve only had this domain registered for a fairly short time. 

What is a little peculiar to look at are some of the values the pagerank prediction tools are producing at the moment for the site.

For me, the most interesting collection of little site monitoring tools is that at iWebTool which has recently changed it’s prediction from a quite respectable PR5 to a PR6. Will we get that next time round though? I can’t honestly see us sitting at PR6 this time next month (the pagerank review is due in early April) but PR5 would be quite nice.

They arrive at these predictions basically by looking at the number of backlinks (ie links to) our site. So, when the last pagerank review came up a few months ago we had around 1000 links to our site and thereby ended up with PR2. That was a so-so start though I think we’d have been PR3 if the site had been in operation longer. Now though we have almost 10,000 links to the site picked up by iWebTool and almost as many again when I look at the site via google’s webmaster tools. That’s more links than all the rest of my sites put together so I think it’s fairly safe to say that the minimum PR next time will be 4 and might be 5 if the site is now old enough for it’s age not to act as a drag on the pagerank.

Does the pagerank really matter though? Well, the figure quoted by google probably doesn’t but what is obvious is that the pagerank that they’re using internally for FP is much higher than PR2 as the site appears considerably higher in searches than it did a few months ago (or even last month for that matter). Ironically, all this improvement in FP has happened despite me doing virtually no promotion of the site whereas even with a good deal of effort being put into promoting a number of my other sites, none have had the performance improvement that FP has had. So great is that improvement, that I’m toying with the idea of restructuring some of the sites as blogs.

Copyright © 2004-2014 by Foreign Perspectives. All rights reserved.

Buying a house in france: part 14: housing: your house in the UK

We’re looked at French housing, but what about your house in the UK?

Even if you are absolutely certain that you are going to spend the rest of your life in France, it’s best to retain your house in the UK if you can so that you have a fall-back position in case things don’t work out in France or you change your mind about living here. Not everyone is able to maintain houses in two countries of course and it will probably make finances a little tighter in France than they would otherwise be. However, once you sell your house in the UK you can find it very difficult to get back into the housing market. In our own case, our UK house went up over 40% in less than three years and effectively beyond our reach had we sold it when we moved.

If you are lucky enough to be able to keep it, you should try to rent it out. Not only will this keep the house occupied but it will help pay the mortgage etc. without needing to rely on income from France to pay for the various bills that will arise in the UK.

If you are going down the rental route, you will almost certainly need to change your mortgage to a buy to let one as few normal residential mortgages allow you to rent out your property easily. Your house insurance also needs to change to reflect the fact that you will have tenants in the house and that it may be unoccupied for extended periods of time between tenants (don’t rely on 100% occupancy!).

Although you could try to find tenants yourself, it’s much simpler to arrange the rentals through a letting agency as they can arrange for work to be done and to inspect the house before during and after each tenancy. This service usually costs around 10% of the rental income plus advertising costs of around 100 in advance of each tenancy.

Costs will continue during periods that you don’t have tenants. For instance, you are still liable for aspects of the electricity, gas and water bills. Throughout your ownership you also need to pay council tax / rates and, of course, insurance.

It’s difficult to be definitive about this decision. Keeping a house in the UK does entail a lot of costs from insurance to mortgage not to mention the additional effort that you need to put into managing your house (even if you have a letting agent). However, selling can be quite a permanent thing to do if you live in an area where prices move quickly and, to my mind, it’s best to retain your house as a fall-back should things in France not work out as you expect.

If you do decide that selling is the best option for you, it’s best to get this in motion before you leave the UK as otherwise you could find yourself liable for French capital gains tax on the proceeds of any sale.

Separately, but related to this topic, is the issue of maintaining a UK postal address. This is one thing that is definitely advantageous to do. If you can change the address for several credit cards to that of a friend or family member before you go, this will effectively move your credit history to their address which we have found to be very useful over the years.

Next week, we move onto French banking.

Copyright © 2004-2014 by Foreign Perspectives. All rights reserved.

Is Belfast anti-European? Exchanging a European driving license in Northern Ireland

Belfast Motor Tax OfficeSeeing as SuperFrenchie thinks I’m “just” anti-French, I thought I’d redress the balance a little and point out one area where the UK is anti-European too.

I was in getting my driving license renewed last week which is something of a hit and miss affair as the explanatory leaflet leaves a LOT to be desired in clarity. Even though the thing was in English and, one would assume therefore that I’d understand it, the opening paragraph on what proof of ID was required was totally incomprehensible and appeared to be totally wrong too.

It opens by saying that if you have a colour photograph on your existing driving license then you don’t need to have someone certify your photograph nor to present a passport. Except, that when my father presented his renewal application complete with his old driving license with colour photo, they wouldn’t renew it without his passport.

It then goes on to say that you always need to have your photo certified yet they happily renewed mine with only my passport.

Then it says “digital photographs are not acceptable” yet they DO accept them, mainly because all of the photobooth machines only produce digital photos these days.

The best bit is perhaps their definition of residency. Despite living in France for three years, I still qualify for a Northern Ireland driving license as, according to their definition, I am still resident there!

However, none of that’s anti-European….

Whilst we were there, one of the increasing number of Polish immigrants arrived to exchange his license for a Northern Ireland one. In theory, he doesn’t actually need to change it at all but the lady in the office reckoned that he had to change it within six months (anti-European point 1). He presented his Polish ID card. Not acceptable: we need a passport (anti-European point 2) which isn’t actually what it says on their website. What she said he needed was to have his photo certified by someone in Northern Ireland who knew him for two years.

Emmm, so he MUST change his driving license within six months and, because you won’t take his valid ID card, he must find someone in Northern Ireland who knew him 18 months before he arrived?

Copyright © 2004-2014 by Foreign Perspectives. All rights reserved.

Will Bayrou shift the French political spectrum?

Bayrou Although Bayrou appears to be in third place, the peculiarities of the two stage electoral process in France mean that he’s the candidate with the greatest potential majority in the second stage, assuming that he gets through the first stage of course. It seems that the candidates in France have had a similar analysis of the voting possibilities to our own and are adjusting their approaches accordingly.

As reported in the Financial Times, this has already had a considerable impact on socialist thinking with an unsigned manifesto in Le Point calling for quite a radical rethinking of socialist policies. In effect, this would represent the realignment of socialism in France that happened with socialism elsewhere in Europe some years ago. Will that realignment happen this time around? I suspect not as there seems very little time before the election now and I can’t really see such a change being one that the electorate would believe.

To an outsider Sarkozy doesn’t seem to need that radical shift in ideology required by Segolene in that he runs what appears to be a very modern party with equally up to date policies. A few weeks ago I thought that his approach would be a little too radical for France at this time but apparently not if the polls are to believed. It does seem though that it’s now even more important that he aims to knock Bayrou out of the race at this point.

What about Bayrou in all this? In many ways it seems as though he is likely to win not so much as a positive statement by the electorate but rather as a vote against the other two candidates which is, of course, exactly what happened last time around when Chriac came up against Le Pen in the second round. The difference this time around is that Bayrou seems to be a realistic possibility in the eyes of the electorate and perhaps we will be referring to him as President Bayrou in just a few months time. If they’re lucky perhaps he will even deliver that “third way” that the French often seem so keen on having but have never quite managed.

Copyright © 2004-2014 by Foreign Perspectives. All rights reserved.

Would you bet on this horse-race?

L'Independant statisticsThe French presidential election is a two stage process which creates almost a horse race approach to the presentation of statistics from the various polls.

Whilst Sarkozy is clearly the front runner and, to a UK audience, “obviously” he will win, that’s not quite so obvious as it might appear. If, as seems likely, the first stage vote doesn’t give Sarkozy over 50% of the vote then the top two polling candidates will proceed to the second stage of the voting.

As we write this, it seems certain that Sarkozy will get through to the second stage and let’s take that as read for the moment to simplify the rest of this discussion.

The second person who gets through is far from a sure thing at this point as the polls are indicating that Royal is sitting on 23% and Bayrou on 21%. Considering how polls work, it’s quite possible that the real position is, say, Royal on 21% and Bayrou on 23%. Yes, the polls indicate a margin of error which would exclude that but that’s before you consider the major problem that the pollsters face which is that those they ask sometimes say what “sounds good” rather than saying the way that they will actually vote. Some years ago this resulted in a totally incorrect prediction in the UK in the days when people thought that they should say they were going to vote Labour but they actually voted Conservative on election day.

In any event, the second position candidate could be either Royal or Bayrou which leaves us with two possibilities for the second round ie Sarkozy vs Royal or Sarkozy vs Bayrou.

Interestingly, the polls indicate that Sarkozy will only win if he is up against Royal in the second round and even then only by a small margin (2%). If he’s up against Bayrou, chances are that he’ll lose by a fairly large margin (10%). So, although Sarkozy has a comfortable 6% lead on Royal on the first round, he’s more likely to lose the second round than he is to win it.

I don’t know if they get into tactical voting in France, but if they do, it looks like it would be worthwhile for Sarkozy supporters to be encouraging Royal supporters and for Bayrou supporters to be encouraging Sarkozy supporters at this point.

Would you still bet on the outcome of the race?

Copyright © 2004-2014 by Foreign Perspectives. All rights reserved.
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