Foreign Perspectives

Although Bayrou appears to be in third place, the peculiarities of the two stage electoral process in France mean that he’s the candidate with the greatest potential majority in the second stage, assuming that he gets through the first stage of course. It seems that the candidates in France have had a similar analysis of the voting possibilities to our own and are adjusting their approaches accordingly.

As reported in the Financial Times, this has already had a considerable impact on socialist thinking with an unsigned manifesto in Le Point calling for quite a radical rethinking of socialist policies. In effect, this would represent the realignment of socialism in France that happened with socialism elsewhere in Europe some years ago. Will that realignment happen this time around? I suspect not as there seems very little time before the election now and I can’t really see such a change being one that the electorate would believe.

To an outsider Sarkozy doesn’t seem to need that radical shift in ideology required by Segolene in that he runs what appears to be a very modern party with equally up to date policies. A few weeks ago I thought that his approach would be a little too radical for France at this time but apparently not if the polls are to believed. It does seem though that it’s now even more important that he aims to knock Bayrou out of the race at this point.

What about Bayrou in all this? In many ways it seems as though he is likely to win not so much as a positive statement by the electorate but rather as a vote against the other two candidates which is, of course, exactly what happened last time around when Chriac came up against Le Pen in the second round. The difference this time around is that Bayrou seems to be a realistic possibility in the eyes of the electorate and perhaps we will be referring to him as President Bayrou in just a few months time. If they’re lucky perhaps he will even deliver that “third way” that the French often seem so keen on having but have never quite managed.