Foreign Perspectives

Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

Ordinarily the ill-will between America and France simply passes us by but with venturing out into blog-land a more than usual of late I’m that little bit more conscious of it from seeing the likes of the ever present anti-American sentiments of SuperFrenchie (ironically living in America).

That makes it more unusual to read of the thoughts of Nicolas Sarkozy who is very much pro-America and, in many ways, against seemingly core beliefs of his native France.

He is openly critical of the anti-work ethic of the French and the related anti-capitalism too. For him, the holding back of the entrepreneurs through excessive regulation and taxes has merely served to enpoverish everyone.

On the whole he would seem to be the ideal selection for France but his ideas run so much contrary to the cozy status-quo that I just can’t see him getting elected when there’s the opportunity to elect Royal and get even deeper into that spiralling cycle of increased regulation, benefits and taxes.

Perhaps next time around it will be his turn but by then the social costs of the turnaround from Royal’s policies will be enormous.

Belfast has always had a slightly rural feel about it. The countryside isn’t far from anywhere in the town and you can almost always see the green fields that surround the city. In other ways too it has never been terribly cosmopolitan with nightlife being relatively quiet for many years.

All that is changing though. For a number of years the nightlife has been getting considerably more lively and the city centre remains busy in the evenings these days with the increasing number of nightclubs and the like opening around the city not to mention the massive increase in city centre apartments that have been constructed over the last ten years or so.

A striking example that I found in my recent trip was the appearance of Anna Lo’s face on an election poster. You’d never have seen her before not because there was discrimination against non-whites here but rather because there weren’t any non-whites. Yet another welcome indication of the settling in of peace.

In years gone by the French were one of the most backward nations in the world with their use of the Internet. They stuck resolutely to their France-only Minitel system and, for the most part, refused to have anything to do with the American-dominated Internet.

That situation is changing very quickly. For example, whilst we had our first ever online reservation from a French person just two Summers ago, nowadays they are commonplace. So, it’s not surprising that the election campaign has gone online in an equally big way. Blogs are coming to be an expected part of that with the Royal campaign blog started early on and campaigning even taking place on SecondLife. Not so long ago, I’d have said that the SecondLife campaign office was totally crazy but apparently the swing against the recent EU referendum was started with the blog from an obscure teacher in Marseille so it would appear possible to swing public opinion in the real world from our vantage point in the virtual one, even in France.

But what about the real politics? Royal prefers intuition to ideology and is said to be good on the “small things” that arise in truly local politics and weak on the bigger picture. She is deliberately vague and promises to consult the people which are, in some ways, excellent approaches. The problem is that when one consults the people one finds out what the people want, not necessarily what they need.

Where she is more specific there are clear contradictions in her policies. In her economic policy objectives she wants to raise the minimum wage substantially, to abolish the CNE labour law (which makes hiring & firing easier for small companies) and to promote even more mass-unionisation (in an already highly unionised country), all clear job destroyers. Yet, on the other hand, she also hopes to create 500,000 youth jobs, generate training opportunities for longer term unemployed youths and even review the 35 hour week. Those two groups of objectives seem to be in clear opposition. Throughout her policies there is the underlying strand of more state intervention with talk of state aid (barely mentioned elsewhere in the world), increased tax on dividends (thus discouraging investment), state regulation of banking fees (no doubt to support the indigenous banks) and renationalisation of EDF/GDF.

What about Sarkozy though? Well, to our eyes he appears more of a “normal” western European politician with his hopes to encourage the job creators to return home to France, to cut taxes and generally free up the state burden on the population. However, he’s unlikely to do much about the farming subsidies or go far to address France’s head in the sand approach to globalisation.

The problem that both face on behalf of the country is that, whilst they might complain about their taxes, the French like their cozy system of benefits and jobs for life. After all, why would anyone want to bother working a 40 hour week when they could work a 35 hour week for the same salary? For that matter, if Royal’s proposal to take unemployment benefit to 90% of that received from one’s previous job, why would anyone want to work at all? This approach is quite typically French in totally ignoring what the rest of the world is getting up to. That, of course, is the main problem with French politics. For example, when an attempt was made to make it easier to hire & fire young people in early 2006, the predictable result was riots in the streets and, equally predictably, a climbdown by the government. Whilst the people needed jobs, what they wanted were jobs for life.

I suspect that this time around the French people will get what they want which is pretty much what Royal has on offer. However, what they need is Sarkozy, if he’s strong enough to push through his policies in spite of certain opposition to a number of them.

Although MI6 was less than pleased (to put it mildly) when Bond zoomed right past their real-life headquarters on the opening sequence of “The World is Not Enough”, just a few years later and we find MI5, their internal security counterparts, advertising for spies on the Internet and indeed even MI6 now feature a nice photo of said headquarters on their own site. Of course, “we” have agents (or, rather, Mobile Surveillance Officers), it is “they” who have spies.

In days gone by, recruitment was by way of the old boy network. It was more than enough for X to say that you were a “reliable chap” for you to find yourself asked by someone in “the Service” to help your country. Unfortunately, the days when the British Empire was mainly up against the Soviet Union are long since gone and the threat is much more from the likes of Muslim extremists these days. The old boy network certainly never included ethnic minorities and, for that matter, rarely extended outside the public school network so they need to look for new ways to find people who can infiltrate the organisations posing the present-day threats.

The more paranoid of you will realise that this entry has so many trigger words that my ‘lil ‘ole blog is sure to attract the interest of MI5. Given the “request” by MI5 some years back to have their routers installed directly on the networks of all UK based ISPs, the paranoid amongst you are more than likely right this time. Sadly, I just can’t see MI5 appearing on the site stats somehow but hopefully I’ll keep one of the chaps or chappettes in ****** ***** or  **** amused now and again in the future.

I, of course, have shot myself down re applying by way of this post as I’m fairly sure that posting such discussions fall well outside of the guidelines they quote, namely “Discretion is important to the Service, so please only discuss this application with your partner and/or immediate family.”. Although, for the true conspiracy theorists, I could be an MI5 plant and double-bluffing the lot of you!

Seriously though, if you’re British and have lived in the UK for most of your life, it is one of the ways that you could help to defend the British way of life in a very constructive, if usually unseen way.

Boris over at France This Way writing about the upcoming French elections reminds me that I’m registered to vote here and perhaps I should find out some more about the people who I might be asked to vote for.

Although registered to vote here, I can only vote in the local and European elections, not the national ones that Boris talks about. Still, it’s interesting to read his take on the policies being proposed by the leading candidates.

Sarkozy definitely sounds like the candidate that France needs. Unfortunately, going by past performance he would more than likely back down from his policies in the face of certain public demonstrations against reductions in benefits. Does that mean that France needs Royal with her policies of increasing benefits and just borrowing more and more to pay for it? Boris suggests that getting him elected and driving France to the abyss would get someone strong enough to pull France out of the hole next time around but I don’t think it would: France would just go sailing over the abyss with spiralling unemployment as it became too expensive to employ people and too difficult to entice people to work anyway when the benefits were so high.

I for one would be quite happy to remain unemployed until retirement age if I was getting paid 90% of what I previously earned. After all, that would free me up from the expenses of going to work each day and would almost certainly mean that I’d get more net “pay” than I was before. Why would anyone be daft enough to look for work under those circumstances?

In fact, the only fly in the ointment in this scenario is that France quite clearly doesn’t have enough money to pay for the pensions that it’s contracted to pay for. At present, there doesn’t appear to be any option other than “pay as you go” schemes in France. These are wonderful inventions which mean that as soon as the scheme is introduced all those presently retired get a full pension which is paid for by those currently working. Unfortunately, since they aren’t funded the whole system depends on having a reasonable number of people working for each person retired.

When old age pensions were first introduced in the UK way back in 1908 for over 70s, the average life expectancy was 50 ie most people died before they received their pension. Now though, with life expectancy over 70, most people do receive their pension. So whilst in 1908 it was no problem paying the pensions in that most people didn’t live long enough to get them, now we find taxes increasing more and more to cover pension payments and yet still there is no “money in the pot” to pay for them.

So what will happen in France? I think that regardless of who is elected, social contributions and benefits will remain high because no French polician is prepared to stand up against the certain protests against reducing benefits. So, the country will have to borrow more. That’s not a sustainable strategy and sooner or later the lenders will call a halt. When they do, it will more than likely be catastrophic for France with widespread and substantial cuts in benefits and taxes called for accompanied by privatisation of just about everything I suspect.