Foreign Perspectives

The big problem with exit polls is that it’s just not possible for them to take a view on how likely it is for the respondents to be telling the truth.

Thus, as it stands right now the exit polls are predicting a 5% or so swing whereas the actual results are looking more like a 10% swing. Will that descrepancy be maintained throughout the night? Chances are that it will as there’s still a tendency to consider voting Labour to be trendy albeit probably not quite so significant as it was a few years back when there was quite a dramatic different in the predictions from the reality.

I suspect that, once again, the exit polls will be seen as being wildly out of whack with reality.