Foreign Perspectives

We’ve lived for decades, centuries even, in an era when prices are, on the whole, expected to increase year after year for the vast majority of goods.

The only category of goods where we are familiar with the effects of deflation are electronic goods and in particular computers so it’s helpful to examine how we treat those. For these there is the expectation that each year will see computers that are a little bit better than their predecessors and additionally they’ll be cheaper. What happens therefore in our buying decision is that we wait until we actually need a new computer before buying one. Now in respect of computers “need to buy” is slightly different from normal products in that there is innovation in the software too which forces us into purchases that would otherwise be un-necessary: that would be unlikely to happen with a normal product.

On the other hand, in an inflationary environment we buy a car now rather than next year because we can be confident that the car will be more expensive and so it is with pretty much everything.

You can even see the effect yourself by considering petrol prices. Until a month or two back I filled the car as often as possible on the basis that the price was rising quite sharply and could be expected to continue doing so. Then things changed as prices started going down very sharply indeed. The approach then was to fill the car only when absolutely necessary as that would be likely to get me the lowest price overall.

In fact, deflation might be a good thing to have but the snag is the period of adjustment that would be required would be extremely painful for everyone. The change from a “buy it now” attitude that’s relevant in an inflationary environment to a “buy it later” attitude appropriate for deflationary times means that factories build up stockpiles and therefore need to cut back on production and the jobs associated with it ie unemployment jumps. At a more personal level, house prices drop dramatically both because of the increased unemployment and because people are moving to a “buy it later” mindset.

One side-effect is that innovation is forced upon many industries which is usually a good thing to happen. However, it’s not an option for a considerable number of products: when was the last time that there was a really innovative potato?

On the whole, it probably is a good thing, it’s just that the transition period would probably be far too painful for governments in general to accept that.