Foreign Perspectives

In eras of normal economic activity there are always rumours that come true. That interest rates will fall (or rise), that the chancellor is on his way out (or not) and so on. However, it’s more of a problem in times like these.

For example, the West Bromwich building society was rumoured to be about to need a rescue package back in May. In fact, that hasn’t happened and may never happen, yet I’m quite sure that more than a few depositors with the society withdrew cash whilst other potential depositors probably decided on a different building society. So far that’s been “a few” depositors or potential depositors but it could very easily become a tide and fell the society just as happened with the Northern Rock.

And yet, we also get rumours in the other direction. Thus the markets don’t seem in such dire straits lately as they were not so long ago. The flow of companies announcing bankruptcies seems to be slowing (no substantial companies for a while now) and even the housing market may be in the first stages of an upturn.

The problem isn’t the rumours as such but rather that in dire economic times the effect of such rumours tends to be much more extreme than would normally be the case. That’s, of course, why the government tend to be somewhat more reluctant to say anything as it’s extremely easy for an off the cuff comment to be perceived as negative these days. Still, we’re sure to have a new government soon, aren’t we? Or is that just a rumour too?